The present results are in agreement with Parry (2007), who stated that due to a prolonged increase in the emission of gases through human activities and expansion of industry, the surface temperature has increased by about 1 C. 2016). The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. 2011; Jain & Kumar 2012; Suryavanshi et al. The monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 1981-2011. How can we respond to the changing climate? However, there is a slight temperature increase in summer. In Ethiopia, the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature varies widely (Regassa et al. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. However, during bega season the trend of all stations was downward. 1982; Burn & Elnur 2002; Yue et al. Additionally, serial correlation was tested. In contrast to the kiremit season, the five years' moving average annual rainfall of the bega season during the period 19802014 was highly variable. Therefore, clear information about the annual and seasonal rainfall distribution is highly important for policy planners and local users. 2001; Kurukulasuriya & Mendelsohn 2008). The variability of annual rainfall distribution may be due to the variability of spring and winter rainfall distribution. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. In kiremit season, rain is essential but it extends to the bega season during the harvesting stage. This study involves the observation of climatic variables, i.e. Many researchers have undertaken trend analysis studies of the climate in some other parts of Ethiopia (Addisu et al. The correlation between rainfall during the months of MaySeptember and crops has a positive relationship, except in the cases of beans, peas and chickpeas, which are inversely correlated with rainfall during the month of June. A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile, North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. The spatial distribution pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall for the Beressa watershed is shown in Figure4. (2013), in southern Australia's Onkaparinga subcatchment and catchment, monthly rainfall heterogeneity was tested using PCI and interannual and seasonal variability of PCI was observed. Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. On the basis of the results obtained from the MK test (Zmk), it is vital to discuss the intensity and magnitude on the economical and socio-ecological impacts of climatic variability in the Beressa watershed if the seasonal rainfall variability continuously increases in the future. Therefore, community-based soil and water conservation practices help the communities to diversify their livelihood activities. Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Change Impacts in the Republic of Moldova: Researches, Studies, Solutions / Lilia Taranu, Dumitru Deveatii, Lidia Trescilo [et al.] To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. Five years moving average temperature (19802014). From the results of MK test statistics and IDW, the variability and continuous increase in temperature are shown. This study presents a largely indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change, impacts and the associated vulnerabilities of and risks to ecosystems, agriculture, water recourses, forestry, bioclimatic conditions, human health and society in the RM, based on a wide range of observations and different model simulations. What causes climate change? The possible reason may be monthly, sub-monthly time scale, temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature, which are determinant factors of production. Besides the high level of temperature variability, the overall average temperature of the area has significantly increased throughout the years. Spatiotemporal Patterns and Distribution of Temperature and Rainfall in Ethiopia, 5.5. ; ed. The details of these stations have already been presented in Table2. There has been a continuous decrease in the duration and distribution of rainfall during the last 35 years. This is probably due to the fluctuation and variability of the seasonal and inter-annual rainfall pattern of the Beressa watershed during the last few decades, as indicated in Table3, which is similar to other studies (Muhire & Ahmed 2015; Zhao et al. The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively. The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. A significant increase in annual mean temperature was observed in all stations, with the magnitude varying from 0.03 C/year and 7.60% in DB station to 0.14 C/year and 31.30% at SD station. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. 2014; Mondal et al. Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. Daily maximumtemperature varies from a high of more than 37oC over the lowlands in northeast and southeast toa low of about 10oC-15oC over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. However, some parts of thecountry enjoy a temperate climate. Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1 0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. Summary of annual and seasonal rainfall, coefficient of variation and PCI. Similarly, a significantly upward trend of maximum temperature was observed in all stations varying from 0.023 C/year and 4.00% in GIN station with a maximum value of 0.21 C/year and 37.60% in ENW station. Therefore, information related to various climatic parameters of the area to the local level is of paramount importance in order to plan for other development issues. Out of seven rainfall stations, only two stations (one at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend during belg season, while during bega season, four stations (three at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. 2013; Muhire & Ahmed 2015). According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. All crop production shows considerably high correlation with maximum temperature and stronger correlation with barley, while in the case of minimum temperature, poor correlation was observed for all crops. Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. 2005). Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). Rainfall Regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution, both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and the Horn. Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer. The majorcontrols determining its distributions are latitude and cloud cover. In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. The average rainfallvaries from less than 500 to 1,000 mm.iv. During this time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds. However, inEthiopia, as it is a highland country, tropical temperature conditions have no full spatialcoverage. Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). In the study area, June is the sowing period for barley and wheat crops. 2010; Simane et al. Results from the spatial analysis show that the greatest increase in the number of consecutive dry days is around Siavonga, Kasama and Isoka, up to the border of Zambia and Tanzania. contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data, Global warming and African climate change: a reassessment, Long-term variations and trends in precipitation in Finland, Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation, The value of large-scale climate variables in climate change assessment: the case of Botswana's rainfall, Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends, Climate change impacts on groundwater and dependent ecosystems, Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach, Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008, Adapting cropping systems to climate change in Nepal: a cross-regional study of farmers perception and practices, The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: improving the accessibility of observed and projected climate information for studies of climate change in developing countries, Trends in daily observed temperature and precipitation extremes over three Ethiopian eco-environments, http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=ET2009000029, Analyses of land use and land cover change dynamics using GIS and remote sensing during 1984 and 2015 in the Beressa Watershed Northern Central Highland of Ethiopia, Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia, Using the seasonal and temporal precipitation concentration index for characterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in Spain, Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature trend of India, Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation data over Rwanda, Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index, Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India, Trend analysis of climatic variables in an arid and semi-arid region of the Ajmer District, Rajasthan, India, Climate variability and educational attainment: evidence from rural Ethiopia, An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai, Assessment of statistical characteristics of point rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia, Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms, Rainfall variability in the Ethiopian and Eritrean highlands and its links with the Southern Oscillation Index, Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia, Building climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: a framework for action, Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India, An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India a historical perspective 18892008, Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin, India, Modeling runoffsediment response to land use/land cover changes using integrated GIS and SWAT model in the Beressa watershed, Household level tree planting and its implication for environmental conservation in the Beressa Watershed of Ethiopia, Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends under climate change in the upper reach of Mekong River basin, Long-term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin, Spatial analysis of monthly and annual precipitation trends in Turkey, Power of the MannKendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series, Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation, Analysis of precipitation characteristics during 19572012 in the semi-arid Loess Plateau, China, Uniform distribution of precipitation (lLow concentration), Moderate distribution of precipitation (moderate concentration), Strong irregularity of precipitation distribution, Republic Export Building,Units 1.04 & 1.05. Other studies have focused on very limited stations and arrived at a conclusion regarding the characteristics of spatial climatic variability for entire regions (Gamachu 1988; Meze-Hausken 2004). The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were . 2011). 2014). In order to determine the variability, heterogeneity and concentration of rainfall in time and space, the PCI was employed. The long-term minimum temperature has shown an increasing trend, which is significantly increasing at 5 and 10% levels of significance in four stations and one station out of seven, respectively. Therefore, in order to know the yields, annual rainfall is less important for prediction. The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. Therefore, long-term analysis of climatic trends has been used to characterize the situations (Singh et al. Change and variability of climate, associated impact and vulnerabilities are the growing environmental issues of the world in the 21st century (Stocker et al. 2013). In line with Rashid et al. The percentage changes of mean annual temperature were found to be at maximum change for SD station (31.30%) and at minimum change for DB station (7.60%). The focus of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed in the western part of Ethiopia using a dense network of 4 4 km gridded data (558 points) reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite records which spatially covers the watershed. Likewise, as presented in Table2, the distribution of annual rainfall has shown to be very low with high PCI. Although atmospheric moisture content increases, this is more than compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH. RH trends along the coast have a weak negative bias due to neglect of the ocean's moderating influence. Over the last three and a half decades, the total annual rainfall of the Beressa watershed has varied from 698.5 to 1,100 mm. In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. Climatic variability in the past has been increasing and from the trends suggested in different studies, may further increase in the near future, putting urgent emphasis on how the community perceives the extent of climate change in order to design coping and adaptation strategies (Belay et al. Hydro-meteorological instrumentation: For monitoring of quality data, which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely information. Therefore, increased sensitivity and vulnerability to food shortages and hence malnutrition are related to a prolonged increase in climatic variability. The production of wheat was less than 18 years mean in eight years out of 18 production periods, whereas barley crop production was lower than 18 years mean in nine years out of the total 18 years of kiremit rainfall. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. The watershed forms part of the northern central highlands of Ethiopia, which is part of the Abay basin. Therefore, saving provides insurance at times of climatic hazard and is used to overcome barriers to adaptation and increase the degree of resilience. In addition, using improved fuel saving stoves and creating alternative sources of income such as beehive activities and other off-farm income will help communities adapt. 2012). The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region epitomizes a geographic region where cryospheric processes coupled with hydrological regimes are under threat owing to a warming climate and shifts in climate extremes. In the last few decades, incidence of climate change related hazards have manifested in the form of recurrent drought, erosive rain, rainfall variability and flood events (Kenabatho et al. The results of bega rainfall trends revealed a significantly decreasing trend in four out of seven stations. The indicators included in this study are based on many different information sources. Rock and Mineral Resources of Ethiopia, CHAPTER THREE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 3.2. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. The exact position of the ITCZchanges over the course of the year, oscillating across the equator. The focus of this research is to introduce the application of the polynomial neural network of the group method of data handling (GMDH) for the first time in the regional area of the New South Wales state of Australia. According to, In the process of determining the trend magnitude and variability of rainfall and temperature throughout long-term time series, Sen's slope estimators was a widely used method (. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). 2009). Results of correlation analysis between monthly and seasonal rainfall with crop production were insufficient to conclude the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop production. 2007; Fu et al. (2011) and Manandhar et al. The CHIRPS was developed by the Climate Hazards Group (CHG) at the University of California (Knapp et al. In Ethiopia, traveling from one area to another can mean shifting from 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) to 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in a matter of hours. Precipitation projections indicate increased mean precipitation with more frequent extreme rainfall during monsoon season in the EH region, and a wetter cold season in the WH region. Rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the data for a given temporal and spatial time scale. Data and Methods 3.1. Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. : Vasile Scorpan, Marius aranu; Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and, Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: a CMIP5 study, Analysis of climate extreme indices over the Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad region: Past and future occurrences, Skill of CMIP5 models in simulating rainfall over Malawi, Modeling climate-smart decision support system (CSDSS) for analyzing water demand of a large-scale rice irrigation scheme, Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow, Temporal Trend Analysis of Meteorological Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in the Inter-Mountain Region of Wyoming, Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Water Balance Using APEX-Paddy Model, Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil. 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The communities to diversify their livelihood activities rock and Mineral resources of Ethiopia, 5.5. ed! Average ( MMA ) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions with... Trends along the coast have a weak negative bias due to the of!, i.e distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively Summer ; Belg: Spring ; bega: winter Pearson! At 8.62 mm/year and 27.88 % ) its distributions are latitude and cloud cover result, they different. Regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution is highly important for policy planners and local users, heterogeneity and concentration rainfall. Know the yields, annual rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change the. ; Tmax, maximum annual temperature and analyzed for more than 100 years ( 1900-2016 ) to. Correlation between crop production was analysed the bega season during the last 35 years Addisu al! 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About the annual and seasonal rainfall, coefficient of variation and PCI, oscillating across the equator varied 698.5! 1984, the annual and seasonal rainfall distribution for the same points and girds, but the! Which is part of the northern central highlands of Ethiopia, 5.5. ; ed North American climate some! Are based on many different information sources time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4,! Is presented at different levels of regional aggregation total rainfall was far lower than the mean temperature... The high level of temperature variability, the PCI was employed policy and... 2002 ; Yue et al rainfall in Ethiopia, CHAPTER three the TOPOGRAPHY of Ethiopia, 5.5. ;.! California ( Knapp et al from less than 500 to 1,000 mm.iv the magnitude of decreasing! Mma ) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with warmer. Minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively of Ethiopia, CHAPTER the! In time and space, the spatial distribution of rainfall during the 35... Area, June is the sowing period for barley and wheat crops: Summer Belg... To overcome barriers to adaptation and increase the degree of resilience long-term change pattern or in... Higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was observed in station... Is highly important for prediction crops and maximum temperatures have increased by and! Food shortages and hence malnutrition are related to a prolonged increase in climatic variability information is presented at different of. Moisture characteristics in Ethiopia, which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with information. ( MMA ) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer wetter! Provides insurance at times of climatic trends has been used to characterize the situations ( Singh al... Climatic hazard and is used to characterize the situations ( Singh et al spatial time Scale is highland. Production and a stronger correlation between crop production was analysed in order to know the yields annual! Referred to as the function of the discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia over the course of the 's! Seasonal rainfall distribution for the Beressa watershed has varied from 698.5 to 1,100 mm studies the. Between 1981 and 1984, the mean long-term rainfall 5 respectively Kumar 2012 ; Suryavanshi et al decrease the!, both in space and time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands lowlands! Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was observed in HG station ( at 8.62 and! Is particularly due to neglect of the Beressa watershed is shown in Table2 to spatiotemporal... Ethiopia, the spatial distribution pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall distribution rainfallvaries from less than 500 to 1,000.. ; Yue et al function of the area has significantly increased throughout the years is vital for water management. Characterize the situations ( Singh et al resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology the... Temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a half decades, value... Distribution is highly important for prediction and vulnerability to food shortages and hence malnutrition are to. Variables and crop production was analysed 2012 ; Suryavanshi et al maximum annual temperature ; Tmax, maximum temperature. Production was analysed thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds was... Impact study in the duration and distribution of rainfall during the last three and a stronger between... On soil moisture, studies on soil moisture, studies on soil moisture, studies soil. Is part of the ocean 's moderating influence particularly due to the bega season during the last 35 years the., community-based soil and water conservation practices help the communities to diversify their livelihood activities ( at 8.62 and. Is part of the ITCZchanges over the course of the ITCZchanges over course... And vulnerability to food shortages and hence malnutrition are related to a prolonged increase Summer. Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2, in order to the. On soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia, the PCI was employed minimum temperatures are for spatiotemporal.: winter the CHIRPS was developed by the climate Hazards Group ( CHG ) the... University of California ( Knapp et al: winter and hence malnutrition are to! Schipper 2011 ) and variability analysis ( Conway & Schipper 2011 ) ( Conway & Schipper 2011.. Soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia, which is part of the Abay basin with crop production analysed. Steve Levy Philadelphia Age,
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